Profit statements

Premier League predictions: Jones Knows wants to take advantage of Manchester United’s new dirt against Arsenal | Soccer News

Manchester United’s new love of the dark arts may help them end Arsenal’s winning streak, predicts tipster Jones Knows as he takes a look at the two great sunday matches.

Brighton vs Leicester, Sunday 2pm, live on Sky Sports – PLAY THE SUPER 6 HERE!

Brighton v Leicester

Brighton have taken 28 points in their last 14 Premier League games since April – only Man City (36), Tottenham (31), Liverpool (31) have amassed more. Meanwhile, Leicester started the season abysmal, playing with such a lack of intensity that they lost four on the rebound in timid fashion.

Well-formed and super-slick Brighton usually feast on teams struggling for confidence with players who may not be pulling in the same direction. But there is absolutely no way I can back them at 4/5 with Sky Bet to win this game. This isn’t my first rodeo with Brighton.

The familiar concern with finishing waste resurfaces at the start of this season. Brighton fail to capitalize on the high probability chances created. In the last three seasons at home, Brighton have created an expected goal figure of 90.34 but have only scored 62 goals, showing a frightening underperformance in front of goal compared to the quality of the chances created.

I haven’t checked the numbers, but Solly March must be responsible for at least 80 of those expected goals, right? He is now at an expected goals total of 1.38 this season with three big chances missed – no Premier League player has a higher xG this season without managing to score. The fact that my weekly 10/1 striker price at any time hasn’t gone down is pretty staggering. It remains this price this weekend elsewhere.

Counter Brighton’s wastefulness with the fact that Leicester have scored in 25 of their last 28 Premier League away games. That suggests a single Foxes goal could be enough to avoid defeat.

All of the above will likely become unnecessary when March returns home tripled to 500/1 though.


Manchester United vs Arsenal, Sunday 4.30pm, live on Sky Sports – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!

Manchester United v Arsenal

Who knew the Erik Ten Hag path was soaked in so much dirt?

I think a lot of us were expecting full-throttle football with a high defensive line, but what Ten Hag has resorted to, so far, is a non-thrill style, fairly direct with canvas background aggression and defense in front. It’s probably smart management because something must have changed in style.

Manchester United are tough and tumbling now and hard to score against. Arsenal will need to be smart and clinical to break though – but a single goal can do that. It would be a massive statement to walk away with three points.

Match prices look about right to me, with United and Arsenal both trading around the same mark at 8/5 with Sky Bet. It’s a tough game to call. Too hard for me to get involved, so I head to the card market for a bet where United’s new aggressive approach makes them want to be dealt more cards than Arsenal at 11/10 with Sky Bet.

Since the 4-0 thrashing at Brentford, no team has received more yellow cards (9) or committed more fouls (40) than Manchester United, with Ten Hag’s side winning the card count race in his last three games. Although Arsenal are considered a team with discipline problems, the figures show that they are only 12th in yellow cards since the start of last season when taking into account the ubiquitous Premier League teams. United are looking at a fantastic price with the cards in mind.

SCORE PREDICTION: 0-0 | JONES KNOWS THE BEST BET: Manchester United have the most booking points (11/10 with Sky Bet – Bet Here!)